The Dynamic Impact of Gold and Oil Uncertainty on XU100, CDS, and Exchange Rate in Türkiye: A Wavelet Analysis

Geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic fluctuations in global markets have significantly influenced investor behavior andthe direction of financial markets. In this turbulent environment, strategic commodities such as gold and oil have emerged as prominentsafe-haven assets. The price volatility of these assets is considered a key indicator of market uncertainty and is measured through impliedvolatility indices, namely the GVZ (Gold Volatility Index) and OVX (Oil Volatility Index). In this respect the relationship between theseindices and financial indicators becomes particularly critical during periods of economic distress. This study examines the effects of GVZand OVX indices on the main financial variables in Türkiye, namely XU100 index, USD/TRY exchange rate and CDS spreads, in thetime-frequency domain using wavelet analysis method. The analyses are conducted through wavelet power spectrum, wavelet coherence,and phase difference techniques. The findings reveal that GVZ exerts strong and persistent influences on exchange rates and CDSspreads, particularly over medium to long term horizons, often acting as a leading indicator. OVX also demonstrates a leading role, withmore pronounced effects in the short to medium term. In contrast, the XU100 index exhibits a weaker and more fragmented response tothese uncertainties, mostly limited to short-term episodes. In conclusion, implied volatility indices represent significant indicators for bothinvestment decisions and macroeconomic policymaking, particularly in economies like Türkiye that are vulnerable to external shocks.This study underscores the necessity of analyzing uncertainty financial market interactions within a time frequency framework and offersmeaningful policy implications for uncertainty management.